TNMC

Here we go again kids. It's time to try and predict who those crazy Academy voters are going to pick as the winners at the Oscars this weekend. I can't actually claim to have seen all the nominated films, but that doesn't necessarily affect my picking skills. Personal taste is a lousy way to pick the winners. The years where I've made my picks based on my taste have shown me to be spectacularly out of step with Academy voters. Years where I've largely ignored my tastes and tried to read the tea leaves as it were, I've been pretty damn accurate. That approach is also a lot more time consuming, and time is something I just don't really have any of. So this year I will use a combination of personal taste and instinct. I expect this will make me slightly more accurate than working purely from taste. Got all that? Who cares. Let's go.

Best Actor

This is a two man race. Frank Langella, Richard Jenkins and Brad Pitt were all excellent but they have exactly zero chance this year. Sorry fellas. This comes down to Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Both are magnificent. Both have something extra backing them up. Penn's role rides a wave of anger over the passage of California's Proposition 8. Rourke has a role that feeds perfectly into his own resurrection as a star. So what do the voters like better? Come back story or politics? My tastes tell me Rourke should win. My instincts say Penn. So I will pick Penn to win because my tastes are scientifically proven not to match those of Academy voters.

Best Supporting Actor

Heath Ledger. It's a brilliant iconic performance. No competition here at all. Expect a seriously weepy moment when his family takes the stage to collect the late actor's award.

Best Actress

This is, in my version of the world, a wide open field. I don't sense any heat on Angelina Jolie for this award, but the other four all have a legitimate shot. Anne Hathaway probably won't win because she's young and presumably will have plenty more chances. Meryl Streep is of course, a legend, and always a threat. But she rarely wins. Kate Winslet is essentially a younger Streep. Nominated a lot, never wins. Melissa Leo isn't particularly well known. On taste alone, I'd make this a battle between Streep and Leo. My instincts say it's a battle between Streep and Winslet. So let's split the difference and call it for Streep.

Best Supporting Actress

This is another wide open field. I always believe that this is the toughest category to call. The winner is often a surprise. But I'm going to simplify it this year. My tastes and instincts say the same thing. Viola Davis. If you've seen Doubt you know that her brief appearance is stunning. I find it hard to believe that if you saw it, you wouldn't give her the award.

Best Animated Feature

After Heath Ledger, this is the easiest pick of them all. WALL-E is the runaway winner. It should have been nominated for best picture as well.

Art Direction

Ugh. I hate calling this category. I admit being baffled at what voters look for the most here. Let's try to see why one would stand out in this group. Changeling, Benjamin Button, The Duchess and Revolutionary Road are all period pieces. The Dark Knight is a comic book come alive. Which one of these things is not like the other? The Dark Knight.

Cinematography

This probably comes down to The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire. Wally Pfister is on his second nomination for a Batman movie and is someone you will someday speak of in hushed tones of awe. But Anthony Dod Mantle's work is eye popping color and constant motion and energy, things vital to the story. Slumdog wins.