You know you want to know. Don't lie to me.
Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Capote”
Terrence Howard in “Hustle & Flow”
Heath Ledger in “Brokeback Mountain”
Joaquin Phoenix in “Walk the Line”
David Strathairn in “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Hoffman has been the favorite here forever. He is a highly talented and respected character actor giving a masterful performance. I'll be astonished if he doesn't win. The beauty of his work is not that he impersonates Truman Capote well but that we forget he's doing it. Heath Ledger goes a long way with repression but I suspect it is far too subtle a performance to bring home the gold. Strathairn and Phoenix are both excellent but not serious contenders. That leaves Terrence Howard waiting in the weeds to pounce. His is the only serious challenge here. His portrayal of a pimp trying to figure out how he got to this point in life and how to do better is searing and touching. Both men are brilliant but I suspect Hoffman's reputation will give him the edge.
Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman Preference: Terrence Howard. I love Hoffman but I'm pulling for the underdog.
Best Actress
Judi Dench in “Mrs. Henderson Presents”
Felicity Huffman in “Transamerica”
Keira Knightley in “Pride & Prejudice”
Charlize Theron in “North Country”
Reese Witherspoon in “Walk the Line”
When you hear critics complaining about the dearth of quality roles for women, this is what they mean. All of the women here do fine work but none of them has a role for the ages. It's just flat out sad.
Prediction: Reese Witherspoon Preference: Keira Knightley
Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney in “Syriana”
Matt Dillon in “Crash”
Paul Giamatti in “Cinderella Man”
Jake Gyllenhaal in “Brokeback Mountain”
William Hurt in “A History of Violence”
Some folks think that Paul Giamatti will win as an apology from the Academy for not even nominating him last year for his brilliant turn in Sideways. It's a sweet thought but that would require someone to actually watch Cinderella Man, an idea so unlikely as to preclude any hope for the richly deserving Giamatti. William Hurt is brilliant in the brief ten minutes he was on screen in A History of Violence but that brevity kills him here. Sure, Dame Judi Dench won for even less screen time in Shakespeare in Love but she was A) a Dame, and B) in a Miramax film. Hurt has neither factor working for him. Jake Gyllenhaal needs Brokeback Mountain to run the table, which I really don't see happening. That leaves us George Clooney and Matt Dillon. Clooney is also nominated for director and screenplay, which probably means he gets no more than one award. I don't think this is it. Matt Dillon thus has the unique experience of getting upstaged by Herbie and winning an Oscar in the same year.
Prediction: Matt Dillon Preference: William Hurt
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in “Junebug”
Catherine Keener in “Capote”
Frances McDormand in “North Country”
Rachel Weisz in “The Constant Gardener”
Michelle Williams in “Brokeback Mountain”
I am contractually obligated here to mention that this is the wild card category. Anything can happen. Actually what that means is that the most deserving performance tends to win, regardless of history or popularity. I'm guessing that means Rachel Weisz but having missed Junebug I'm not sure.
Prediction: Rachel Weisz Preference: Catherine Keener
Best Animated Feature
“Howl’s Moving Castle”
“Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride”
“Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit”
For once the combatants in this category are here on merit and not box office totals. Sorry Disney. Critics seem to agree that while very good, Howl's Moving Castle is not director Hayao Miyazaki's best work. Corpse Bride is thoroughly charming. But hearts and laughs belong most heavily to Wallace & Gromit.
Prediction: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit Preference: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Best Director
Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”
Bennett Miller “Capote”
Paul Haggis “Crash”
George Clooney “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Steven Spielberg “Munich”
The Director's Guild Awards are amongst the surest predictors and that went to Ang Lee. Personally I'd love to see Spielberg get it for what is likely his most mature and ambiguous film to date, but no one asked me.
Prediction: Ang Lee Preference: Steven Spielberg
Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
What won't happen is a win by Capote, Munich or Good Night, and Good Luck. Brokeback Mountain is the presumptive favorite. That doesn't mean it is going to win. Let's not forget that the Academy is a pretty conservative organization. Crash is much less risky and deals with issues that more people (particularly LA residents like most of the Academy) can relate to. Yes, Brokeback is the stronger box office performer of the two, but Crash is doing pretty well for itself on DVD. I smell an upset.
Prediction: Crash Preference: Munich
Achievement in art direction
“Good Night, and Good Luck.”- Jim Bissell and Jan Pascale
“Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire” - Stuart Craig and Stephenie McMillan
“King Kong” - Grant Major, Dan Hennah and Simon Bright
“Memoirs of a Geisha” - John Myhre and Gretchen Rau
“Pride & Prejudice” - Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer
I wish I was calling this as part of a huge sweep for King Kong in a ton of categories, but it's not to be, the award or the sweep.
Prediction: Memoirs of a Geisha Preference: King Kong
Achievement in cinematography
“Batman Begins” - Wally Pfister
“Brokeback Mountain” - Rodrigo Prieto
“Good Night, and Good Luck.” - Robert Elswit
“Memoirs of a Geisha” - Dion Beebe
“The New World” - Emmanuel Lubezki
Now this is a tough one. Brokeback has the weight of most nominations to help it. Good Night is shot in a gorgeous black and white. Geisha is well thought of for its look, if nothing else. Batman looked great but is a comic book movie, hurting credibility. And I think too many people fell asleep during The New World to remember how great it looks.
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain Preference: Good Night, and Good Luck
Achievement in costume design
“Charlie and the Chocolate Factory” - Gabriella Pescucci
“Memoirs of a Geisha” - Colleen Atwood
“Mrs. Henderson Presents” - Sandy Powell
“Pride & Prejudice” - Jacqueline Durran
“Walk the Line” - Arianne Phillips
Prediction: Memoirs of a Geisha Preference: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Best documentary feature
“Darwin’s Nightmare”
“Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room”
“March of the Penguins”
“Murderball”
“Street Fight”
March of the Penguins made more money than any of the best picture nominees. That probably counts for something in this category.
Prediction: March of the Penguins Preference: Murderball
Best documentary short subject
“The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club”
“God Sleeps in Rwanda”
“The Mushroom Club”
“A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin”
Prediction: God Sleeps in Rwanda Preference: N/A
Achievement in film editing
“Cinderella Man” - Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
“The Constant Gardener”- Claire Simpson
“Crash” - Hughes Winborne
“Munich” - Michael Kahn
“Walk the Line” - Michael McCusker
Prediction: Crash Preference: Crash
Best foreign language film of the year
“Don’t Tell” - Italy
“Joyeux Noël” - France
“Paradise Now” - Palestine
“Sophie Scholl - The Final Days” - Germany
“Tsotsi” - South Africa
Of this bunch, I have only seen Paradise Now. It and Tsotsi seem to be getting all the press.
Prediction: Tsotsi Preference: Paradise Now (pending review of any of the other four)
Achievement in makeup
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” - Howard Berger and Tami Lane
“Cinderella Man” - David Leroy Anderson and Lance Anderson
“Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith” - Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley
The Academy seems to hate George Lucas, so give the award to Narnia.
Prediction: Narnia Preference: Revenge of the Sith
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
“Brokeback Mountain” - Gustavo Santaolalla
“The Constant Gardener” - Alberto Iglesias
“Memoirs of a Geisha” - John Williams
“Munich” - John Williams
“Pride & Prejudice” - Dario Marianelli
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain Preference: Munich
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“In the Deep” from “Crash” - Music by Kathleen “Bird” York and Michael Becker, Lyric by Kathleen “Bird” York
“It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” from“Hustle & Flow” - Music and Lyric by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard
“Travelin’ Thru” from “Transamerica” - Music and Lyric by Dolly Parton
I'm guessing the high point of the evening will be the performance of “It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp.” How they pull this off is of great interest to me.
Prediction: In the Deep Preference: It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp
Best animated short film
“Badgered”
“The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation”
“The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello”
“9”
“One Man Band”
Prediction: The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation Preference: N/A
Best live action short film
“Ausreisser (The Runaway)”
“Cashback”
“The Last Farm”
“Our Time Is Up”
“Six Shooter”
Prediction: Six Shooter Preference: N/A
Achievement in sound editing
“King Kong” - Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn
“Memoirs of a Geisha” - Wylie Stateman
“War of the Worlds” - Richard King
Prediction: King Kong Preference: King Kong
Achievement in sound mixing
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” - Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic and Tony Johnson
“King Kong” - Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek
“Memoirs of a Geisha” - Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline and John Pritchett
“Walk the Line” - Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland
“War of the Worlds” - Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins
Prediction: King Kong Preference: King Kong
Achievement in visual effects
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” - Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar
“King Kong” - Joe Letteri, Brian Van’t Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor
“War of the Worlds” - Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randy Dutra and Daniel Sudick
Here is the proof that the Academy hates George Lucas. This should have been a big face off between Kong and Revenge of the Sith. Personally I thought the effects in Narnia were pretty uneven. The beavers looked amazing but the lion looked fake. Hardly the pinnacle of the art. Kong will win this one easily with its only serious competitor not even in the fight.
Prediction: King Kong Preference: King Kong
Adapted screenplay
“Brokeback Mountain” - Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana
“Capote” - Dan Futterman
“The Constant Gardener” - Jeffrey Caine
“A History of Violence” - Josh Olson
“Munich” - Tony Kushner and Eric Roth
Brokeback Mountain should be the easy winner here. The effortless way in which it blows right past the gay element and quickly settles into simply being a love story is pretty damn impressive.
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain Preference: Brokeback Mountain
Original screenplay
“Crash” - Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco
"Good Night, and Good Luck.” - George Clooney & Grant Heslov
“Match Point” - Woody Allen
“The Squid and the Whale” - Noah Baumbach
“Syriana” - Stephen Gaghan
Paul Haggis juggles countless characters in Crash and manages to give every single one of them two sides. Good Night is biting modern social commentary masquerading as a slice of history. Match Point doesn't even vaguely feel like a Woody Allen movie and has wonderfully drawn characters. Syriana confuses the hell out of the audience and doesn't make them feel bad about it.
Prediction: Crash Preference: Crash
Okay kids, if you've gotten this far, you deserve a treat. I've made my predictions, now do me better. Go to our forums, find the prediction thread and lay down your picks for the big eight: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay. If you can guess better than I did, you go into a drawing for a copy of the Best Picture winner on DVD. Make sure to tune into the Oscars on ABC this Sunday, March 5. As always, I'll be right here in our chat room, hosting a live chat on the website during the awards. Maybe we'll play the Predict the Oscars Drinking Game.
